Afghanistan: Politics, Elections, and Government Performance

Kenneth Katzman
Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs


Summary
In the context of a review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan during September-November 2009, the performance and legitimacy of the Afghan government figured prominently. In his December 1, 2009, speech announcing a way forward in Afghanistan, President Obama stated that the Afghan government would be judged on performance, and “The days of providing a blank check are over.” The policy statement was based, in part, on an assessment of the security situation furnished by the top commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, which warned of potential mission failure unless a fully resourced classic counterinsurgency strategy is employed. That counterinsurgency effort is deemed to require a legitimate Afghan partner.

The Afghan government’s limited writ and widespread official corruption are believed by U.S. officials to be helping sustain a Taliban insurgency and complicating international efforts to stabilize Afghanistan. At the same time, President Hamid Karzai has, through compromise with faction leaders, been able to confine ethnic disputes to political competition, enabling his government to focus on trying to win over those members of the ethnic Pashtun community that support Taliban and other insurgents. Despite the measurable loss of confidence in Karzai, he still went into the August 20, 2009, presidential election as the favorite. Amid widespread charges of fraud, many substantiated by a U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission, nearly one-third of Karzai’s votes were invalidated and the certified result, released October 21, 2009, placed Karzai just short of the 50%+ total needed to avoid a second-round runoff. The runoff was scheduled for November 7, 2009, but, asserting that fraud was likely in the runoff, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai’s main challenger, dropped out of the race on November 1, 2009, and Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission declared Karzai the winner on November 2.

Appearing to welcome a resolution of the issue, the United States congratulated Karzai and praised Abdullah for diplomatic restraint. Karzai was inaugurated on November 19, with Secretary of State Clinton in attendance. On December 19, he presented a new cabinet to the National Assembly, retaining most of the better accomplished ministers but retaining some faction leaders in their positions. Because most insurgents are, like Karzai, ethnic Pashtuns, stabilizing Afghanistan requires winning Pashtun political support for the Afghan government. This support requires effective local governing structures. New provincial councils in each of the 34 provinces were elected on August 20 as well, although their roles in local governance and their relationships to appointed governors remain unclear and inconsistent across Afghanistan. The trend toward promoting local governing bodies has been accelerated by the Obama Administration and is likely to receive continued U.S. and partner country focus. Implementing this focus is a so-called “civilian uplift” that is in the process of doubling, to about 975 by early 2010, the number of U.S. civilian personnel helping build Afghan governing and security institutions and the economy.

Under an FY2009 supplemental appropriation (P.L. 111-32), the Administration developed, by September 23, 2009, “metrics” by which to judge progress in Afghanistan, including the performance and legitimacy of the Afghan government and its efforts to curb official corruption. Small amounts of U.S. funds are tied to Afghanistan’s performance on such metrics.

For further information, see CRS Report RL30588, Afghanistan: Post-Taliban Governance, Security, and U.S. Policy, by Kenneth Katzman.

Date of Report: December 22, 2009
Number of Pages: 33
Order Number: RL21922
Price: $29.95

Document available electronically as a pdf file or in paper form.
To order, e-mail congress@pennyhill.com or call us at 301-253-0881.
.